I think this is roughly an ad poach play from Zuck. The problems you’ve highlighted in the product are too big for this to be anything else. And the other identified bits like potential mission (“fairer censorship”) don’t match with what FB are doing on other platforms.
It’s been a couple of months now and we hear less and less from Threads. Or at least I do. Which makes me think Zuck saw an opportunity to grab something at a very low cost, take a stand, and have a little play with a new product (and poke the Elon-bear, which he seems to enjoy doing regardless!).
I’m curious to see if anything actually comes out of it. Although my comment seems cynical, I actually think even if nothing comes out of it, this is a great play. We need massive companies like FB to take bets like that, shake things up! I love it.
This feels like more of a segment grab, with a liberal pour of hubris, to me.
We often talk about social media platform like they're all basically the same. Some people choose Instagram, others Twitter, or if you're my Nan, Facebook. But that's not really true. Different platforms attract different types of people. If I'm a photographer, I gravitate towards Instagram. If I prefer wit and physical constraint (remember when the 140 character tweet was a thing?), I will have Twitter as my primary platform. If I prefer longform content, I'll be on Substack (written) or Youtube (video). I may have other social media accounts, but often they serve as a x-promo funnel to trickle in a few extra views.
Threads is important to Meta because it gives access to a different type of data input. It's virgin territory, and a fresh set of eyeballs for advertising - even if the accounts are the same (i.e. I'm on Insta and I'm on Threads), the context shift is sufficient to sell extractive PPC packages to advertisers. I'm no expert, but I also suspect that short form content is more effective at targeting ads to users than images (through ML and AI models), so it possibly has a side effect of making Instas (woeful) advertising targeting more effective.
But deep in my heart I fear that this is really just one tech billionaire trying to flex harder than another. Where Elon failed, Zuck will overcome. Where Twitter (sorry, X) was toxic, Threads will be a digital utopia where everyone will be kind (and if they are not, our LLM models will make censor them out of existence under the guide of a more kind environment).
Jul 10, 2023·edited Jul 10, 2023Liked by Aatir Abdul Rauf
Love the analysis. I'm surprised to see that poor onboarding. Unfortunately, Threads is still unavailable in Poland.
One issue bothers me. Typical retention after 1 month for a mobile app is only about 40%. I'd love to see how many people can get to their Aha moment, for example:
- followed at least 30 creators (do Instagram friends posting half-naked pictures count as creators?)
Great post Aatir. My 2ct on this situation.
I think this is roughly an ad poach play from Zuck. The problems you’ve highlighted in the product are too big for this to be anything else. And the other identified bits like potential mission (“fairer censorship”) don’t match with what FB are doing on other platforms.
It’s been a couple of months now and we hear less and less from Threads. Or at least I do. Which makes me think Zuck saw an opportunity to grab something at a very low cost, take a stand, and have a little play with a new product (and poke the Elon-bear, which he seems to enjoy doing regardless!).
I’m curious to see if anything actually comes out of it. Although my comment seems cynical, I actually think even if nothing comes out of it, this is a great play. We need massive companies like FB to take bets like that, shake things up! I love it.
This feels like more of a segment grab, with a liberal pour of hubris, to me.
We often talk about social media platform like they're all basically the same. Some people choose Instagram, others Twitter, or if you're my Nan, Facebook. But that's not really true. Different platforms attract different types of people. If I'm a photographer, I gravitate towards Instagram. If I prefer wit and physical constraint (remember when the 140 character tweet was a thing?), I will have Twitter as my primary platform. If I prefer longform content, I'll be on Substack (written) or Youtube (video). I may have other social media accounts, but often they serve as a x-promo funnel to trickle in a few extra views.
Threads is important to Meta because it gives access to a different type of data input. It's virgin territory, and a fresh set of eyeballs for advertising - even if the accounts are the same (i.e. I'm on Insta and I'm on Threads), the context shift is sufficient to sell extractive PPC packages to advertisers. I'm no expert, but I also suspect that short form content is more effective at targeting ads to users than images (through ML and AI models), so it possibly has a side effect of making Instas (woeful) advertising targeting more effective.
But deep in my heart I fear that this is really just one tech billionaire trying to flex harder than another. Where Elon failed, Zuck will overcome. Where Twitter (sorry, X) was toxic, Threads will be a digital utopia where everyone will be kind (and if they are not, our LLM models will make censor them out of existence under the guide of a more kind environment).
Color me skeptical 😔
Loved the breakdown, Aatir.
Love the analysis. I'm surprised to see that poor onboarding. Unfortunately, Threads is still unavailable in Poland.
One issue bothers me. Typical retention after 1 month for a mobile app is only about 40%. I'd love to see how many people can get to their Aha moment, for example:
- followed at least 30 creators (do Instagram friends posting half-naked pictures count as creators?)
- viewed at least 1000 threads
- reacted to at least 10 threads
Very nice analysis
Great article